The Fate of the US-Russia Nuclear Arms Treaty: Risks, Stakes, and the Road Ahead

The Fate of the US-Russia Nuclear Arms Treaty: Risks, Stakes, and the Road Ahead

By Aswin Anil

US and Russia nuclear arms treaty and global security concept

The international community stands at a critical moment. On February 5, 2026, the last legally binding nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia — the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) — is set to expire. Its possible end has reignited global concerns about nuclear risks, transparency, and the return of an unchecked arms race.

Why New START Mattered

Signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, New START capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 per side and limited delivery systems such as intercontinental missiles and heavy bombers.

Crucially, the treaty introduced verification measures including on-site inspections, data exchanges, and notifications. These mechanisms reduced mistrust and helped prevent miscalculations — even during periods of severe political tension.

Treaty on the Brink: What’s Happening Now

Russia suspended its formal participation in New START in 2023, citing U.S. support for Ukraine. While Moscow said it would continue to observe numerical limits, inspections and verification activities effectively stopped.

In late 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to maintaining the treaty’s limits for an additional year, pending U.S. agreement. As of early 2026, no binding extension has been finalized.

Diplomacy or Default: Competing Views

In Washington, opinions remain divided. Arms-control advocates argue that limits are essential to avoid destabilization, while others favor letting the treaty expire to pursue a broader agreement — potentially involving China.

China has rejected trilateral talks so far, arguing that its nuclear stockpile remains far smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia, making such negotiations premature.

The Real Stakes for Global Security

  • Arsenal Expansion: Without legal limits, both sides could significantly increase deployed warheads.
  • Loss of Transparency: Ending inspections raises the risk of misinterpretation and escalation.
  • New Arms Dynamics: Hypersonic weapons and AI-assisted systems fall outside current treaty frameworks.

Reflecting these risks, nuclear experts have repeatedly warned that the erosion of arms control agreements increases the likelihood of catastrophic miscalculation.

Can Diplomacy Win the Day?

Even if New START expires, experts say informal limits, confidence-building measures, or interim agreements could preserve stability. A comprehensive successor treaty, however, would likely take years to negotiate.

Conclusion

The end of New START would mark more than the expiration of a treaty. It would signal a turning point in how major powers manage nuclear risk. Whether through extension or reinvention, maintaining strategic restraint remains a global imperative.